Supercomputer predicts the 2026 World Cup winner after running full tournament simulations

The final international break before the World Cup has officially come to an end. All 48 qualified teams are now confirmed, and the only thing left is to count down the days until the highly anticipated June 11 kickoff, when Mexico and South Africa will open the tournament.

Between now and then, both experts and fans alike will be making their predictions about how the competition will unfold. Spain, which dropped from the top of the FIFA rankings after a 0–0 draw against Egypt (allowing France to take over the No. 1 spot), remains the leading favorite according to Opta’s supercomputer for the World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It gives Spain a 15.83% chance of lifting the trophy.

Close behind is Kylian Mbappé’s France, with a 12.77% probability. France, of course, won the title in 2018 and finished as runners-up in 2022, when Argentina claimed the crown. Argentina currently ranks fourth in Opta’s projections, just behind England in third, with both teams holding over a 10% chance of winning.

Other traditional powerhouses such as Portugal, Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands sit just outside the top tier. While they may not be leading the projections, they remain dangerous contenders, and in a tournament of this magnitude, no team would welcome facing them.

According to the model, the projected group winners are Mexico, Switzerland, Brazil, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, France, Argentina, Portugal, and England.